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Prediction for CME (2024-06-08T01:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-08T01:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31346/-1
CME Note: Large halo CME visible in STEREO A COR2 and SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. The source appears to be two back-to-back M-class flares from AR13697 with associated dimming signature to the north as well as nice filament ejecta to the west and north. Post-eruptive arcades are beginning to show in SDO/AIA 193. There is a large EUV wave associated with this event, as best seen in SDO/AIA 211.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-10T09:44Z (-4.84h, +5.53h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/06/08 01:47Z
Plane of Sky 1: 04:42Z; 23Rsun; WSW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 07:48Z; 23Rsun; ENE Direction
POS Difference: 3:06
POS Midpoint: 06:15Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 4:28

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~12.53
Travel Time: ~12.53 * 4:28 = 55:57

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-06-10T09:44Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5
*** An forecast update might be needed once coronagraph imagery fills in


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/06/08 06:47Z

Lead Time: 57.78 hour(s)
Difference: 6.87 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-06-08T06:49Z

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